The Virtues of Wild Guesses

Some probability distributions are very uncertain. For example, what are the odds of Strong AI by 2040? Not only is there a lot of uncertainty, but there is also "uncertainty to the uncertainty"; I have no rigorous way of answering the question.

Other questions are close to zero-knowledge. For example, what is the probability of a Singularity arising in the average star system? I'd put an upper-bound of 10^-16, based on the fact that no alien civilization has yet shown up to collect the unused sunlight pouring out uselessly into empty space. But, I have no lower bound.

Suppose today you have to make a decision based on one of these questions. There are three things you can do:

1. Decide arbitrarily, or decide solely according to heuristics that are unconnected to the reality at hand. Examples: Always choose inaction. Continue doing whatever you were doing before you pondered the question. Do whatever makes you feel best today. Do whatever would result in the least embarrassment if you're wrong. Do whatever everyone else is doing.
   
2. Make your best wild guess, but keep it to yourself to avoid political embarrassment. After all, everyone has some People Who Would Love To Take You Down A Notch in their lives; the last thing you want to do is say something in public that turns out to be embarrassingly wrong.
   
3. Collaborate. Make your best wild guess, and share it freely, taking pains to label it as a wild guess of course! Just be aware that if you're wrong, the defense of "I *said* it was a wild guess, and anyway I was braver and more rational that the people who refused to guess at all!" is unlikely to be heard.
   

Choices (2) and (3) are reasonable approaches. Unfortunately, (1) is probably the most common; we tend to inertially push forward with our current paths until someone can prove that our current path is wrong.