Suppose there is no World War III; suppose that there's no single disaster sufficient to wipe out more than, say, 10% of mankind in a single year. When will the Singularity arrive?
Kurzweil's scenario gives us affordable human-level hardware around 2024, according to my interpretation of his graph. I find his "accelerating exponential growth" model of pre-Singularity computer hardware to be more reasonable than straight Moore's Law, especially factoring in possible nanotech and biotech improvements. Note that Kurzweil states that his models gave him "10^14 to 10^16 cps for creating a functional recreation of all regions of the human brain, so (he) used 10^16 cps as a conservative estimate." I'm interested in "most likely" rather than "conservative", so I used 10^15, but that doesn't make a huge difference. I also picked a "most likely" spot on the gray error-bar rather than a conservative extreme, which does shift things significantly.
Kurzweil believes that the Singularity would arrive decades after we have cheap human-level hardware, but I think it's more likely to arrive a little bit ahead or a little bit behind. So, my wild guess is 2024: meaning that while it's unlikely to arrive in exactly that year, I give it a 50/50 odds of being before or after. Of course, it could end up being "never". It could end up being next year.
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